JPMorgan Chase _ Co Research Division_GUC_ AI CPU expectations rise_ Tesla outlook mixed_ stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$4400_16_Jun_2026 2

PDF 原檔：JPMorgan Chase _ Co Research Division_GUC_ AI CPU expectations rise_ Tesla outlook mixed_ stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$4400_16_Jun_2026 2_original.pdf

原始內容

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GUC

AI CPU expectations rise, Tesla outlook mixed; stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$4400

We raise estimates to reflect upward revisions in GUC's AI CPU projects (primarily Google Axion) due to strong demand from agentic AI workloads and increased bundle rates for CPUs. GUC is likely to remain the back-end logistics partner for the next generation Google CPU project as well, which should drive continued growth into 2028, even though gross margins remain under pressure. For Tesla, we believe that the AI5 project should be largely handled by GUC with mass production ramp in mid 2027, but AI6 is likely to move back to Samsung Foundry. Future allocation for AI projects is more uncertain, given that Tesla is engaging TSMC (AI 6.5), Samsung and Intel/TeraFab for this project. While GUC's revenue outlook remains strong, led by Google CPUs, we remain Neutral due to (1) continued downward pressure on gross margins due to lower margin CPU engagement, (2) increasing competition for CPU projects as design service space sees more aggressive pricing, and (3) lack of any CoWoS-based ASICs in GUC's pipeline. Key upside risks are (1) upside to Microsoft MAIA projects, especially if GUC is able to find a role for MAIA400, (2) more clarity on Tesla's future AI series engagement; while key downside risks are (1) more competition in ARM CPUs, given the lack of strong moat around this business, especially for Google CPUs, given recent indications of attempt towards further Foundry diversification; and (2) smaller volume for Tesla AI5, if Samsung's AI6 project can ramp up on time. We raise our FY26/27 EPS estimates by 9%/15% and lift our Jun-27 PT to NT$4400 (35x 12-month forward P/E), while staying Neutral.

• Strong server CPU ramp, likely to hit $1bn run-rate in 2026, next gen targeting MP in 2H27: We see incrementally positive demand for AI CPUs driven by agentic AI use cases, and now expect GUC's Google Axion CPU project could potentially reach ~US$1bn revenue in 2026. Revenue momentum should pickup in 2H26 (JPMe company total revenue up 20%+ QoQ in both 3Q and 4Q) as additional wafers secured at TSMC in 1H flow through to revenue. In addition, development of the next generation CPU is likely underway, with MP expected in 2H27. Our industry checks indicate that the next-gen CPU will remain on TSMC's 3nm node but should see a substantial ASP uplift (JPMe 1.5+x) on a more complex design. Given rising demand and the next-gen ramp, we expect revenue from this client to double YoY in 2027 and grow 50%+ YoY in 2028. However, the current TK3 business model is expected to remain in place for the next generation, and thus there could be more pressure on gross margins given higher ASPs and unchanged engagement model, in our view.
• Tesla AI5 ramping in 2027, future projects uncertain given clouded roadmap: Tesla's AI5 Autonomous drive Chip remains on track for MP in mid-2027. As a TK1 project, it should help offset some of the GM dilution from the AI CPU mix in 2027. While this client is evaluating geopolitical risk, GUC management noted that production can be relocated to the US site of TSMC if needed-even if test chips start in Taiwan-since the process and flow are identical. The current project (AI5) will be produced at both TSMC and Samsung, with TSMC (where GUC has exposure) holding the majority share, in our view. The next generation will also be split across two foundries but as two models (AI6 and AI6.5), with an estimated 1-2 quarter tapeout time

Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

8

98

62

Neutral

3443.TW, 3443 TT

Price (15 Jun 26):NT$4,815.00

▲Price Target (Jun-27):NT$4,400.00 Prior (Jun-27):NT$3,600.00

Technology and Telecoms

Gokul Hariharan AC

(852) 2800-8564

gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Jennifer Hsieh

(886-2) 2725-9868

jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

David Chou

(886-2) 2725-9618 david.chou@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Jason Chen

(886-2) 2725-9864

jason.bh.chen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Subham Singhania

(91-22) 6157-3801

subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Style Exposure